More ORC Certs

In the spreadsheet, above, I’ve added a different Olson 30, updated the J105, and added the Tripp 37 and the J44. It looks like both the J44 and the Tripp 37 will be hard to beat. The J105 looks like less of a threat with the updated certification. the other Olson is within a few seconds of us.

One thing that I cannot figure out is why the Performance Line Offshore numbers are so much more unfavorable (for the Olsons) than the windward/leeward numbers. Intuitively, since the Olson’s best point of sail is downwind, and since it reaches for sh!t, you’d think that the other boats would owe the Olson less time on the windward/leeward course. The opposite is true. The other boats owe the Olson less time in the Performance Line Offshore calculations. Is there an ORC expert out there who can explain this? Does Performance Line Offshore assume a straight line course with no tacking? Obviosly there is more to it than hull speed; because a 37 foot boat (the Tripp 37) is rated almost even, depending on the length of the race.

What’s the dealio?

A Brief Conversation That I had Last Night With My Devoted Daughter

Me: When are you going to finish your Dirver’s Ed CDs?

Devoted Daughter: Don’t worry about it, Dad.

Me: Darling. You’ve been telling me that for the last six months.

Devoted Daughter: Dad, I’ve got to do 32 hours of coursework on the Driver’s Ed CD. I cannot do it in one day.

Me: I’ll tell you a little story. When I worked as roughneck on the rigs, my boss was a driller named George. George, when I was working slowly, used to say, “God d##m%t Bethancourt, a 30 minute job would take you half an hour!”

Devoted Daughter:

Me:

Devoted Daughter:

Me:

Devoted Daughter: And your point is?

Me: George was trying to tell me that 30 minute jobs should not take me half an hour. He fully expected me to finish 30 minute jobs in around 10 minutes.

Devoted Daughter: Dad… Lots of kids take longer than 30 minutes to do half hours jobs.

Me: Darling, If I thought you were only average… if I thought you were only capable of modest improvements in performance… if I thought you should be satisfied with being better than lots of kids… then I’d let it slide.

Devoted Daughter:

Me:

Devoted Daughter:

Me:

Devoted Daughter: ok. Maybe I get that.

Me: Oh dear Jesus and sweet baby Jesus! I think we just made a connection.

Devoted Daughter: You’re not going to get all mushy on me now, Are you?

Me: Oh hell, no.

Devoted Daughter: Cool.

Me. Cool.

ORC Part 2

I can tell, from the logs, that I’ve got some ORC lurkers out there. Go ahead and send me your ORC cert. Or just leave your time and distance factors in the comments. I’ll do my superficial analysis and render my prejudiced verdict.

I know you’re out there. Go ahead and comment.

ORC Analysis

I did some analysis on the ORC handicapping system in preparation for the upcoming Harvest Moon regatta, which we’ll be doing on Mike’s Olson 30. The race is a 150 mile slog down the beach to Port Aransas, from Galveston. The start of the race is exiting, with over 200 boats strung out on the starting line off the Flagship Hotel in Galveston. The race is typically a tight reach in 10 to 20 knots of wind; probably the Olson’s worst point of sail. It’s virtually un-winnable if we get a tight reach all the way to Port A. But if we get a norther on the day of the race, we could be fighting for line honors. A big norther came in last year, and a Hobie 33 was very nearly the first monohull to finish.

I’m a little unsure of the results of my analysis because I was guessing at units to use in the ORC formulas. But the spreadsheet values seem close, so I’ll assume, for now, that I got the units right. I used a 150 mile race and ran the calcs for 5 boats as if they all finished at the same time for 15 hour, 20 hour, and 25 hour races, using the ORC Performance Line Offshore calculations.

For funsies, I also did calculations on Windward Leeward, and Circular Random ORC performance numbers. It is my understanding that we will use the Performance Line Offshore for Harvest Moon.

It’s useful to compare the Olson 30 and the J105. The J105 owes the Olson 30 somewhere between 30 and 60 minutes, depending on how long the race takes and whether the J105 registers with PHRF sails or class sails. In simpler terms, the rating supposes that the J105 is somewhere between 12/secs per mile and 24/secs per mile faster than the Olson 30. In light air (light air = long race), the Olson gets less of a bonus per mile because its’ distance factor is large, relative to the J105. In heavy air (heavy air = short race) the Olson maintains its’ time advantage, again because the distance factor is large, relative to the J105. The distance factor overwhelms the calculation for long races of short duration. The time factor plays more into the equation for short races that take a long time.

All that said, we get hosed on ORC if it is upwind all the way to Port Aransas. But we knew that before we entered. The same would be true of PHRF. The Olson needs to go downwind to justify its’ rating.

What seems a little weird is the Circular Random and Windward Leeward comparisons of the J105 and the Olson30. It looks as if the J105 owes the Olson 30 much *more* time for these types of courses. I’ve raced lots of windward/leewards in the Olson, with J105s on the same course, and I can tell you with confidence that the Olson competes quite well with the J105 on a windward/leeward. It’s on the reaches that the J105 really shines, especially if they can carry their asymmetrical chute.

For all cases, it looks as if the 1D35 will owe the Olson 30 close to 3 hours, and the Beneteau 50 will owe the Olson close to 2 hours. The Beneteau 50 will probably crush us on a medium+ air tight reach.

I Hate the Houston NOOD

Let’s do some free word association. What comes to you mind when you hear the phrase, “Houston NOOD?”

Light air. Cancelled race days. Poor tactical decisions. Oil spills. Wicked fast boat with poor results. Second place in 2002. Very, very light air. Losing a 1^st place tiebreaker in 2003 with racing cancelled on the last day. I hate second place. Second place. First loser. Funky race committee decisions. Light f%ckin air.

All these things and more remind me of the Houston NOOD. Maybe it’s just my imagination, but the weather is especially poor in the even years, when LYC does race committee. In 2004, a race committee official cancelled a race we were leading. We had a steady 0 to 3 knots of breeze when he proclaimed over the radio, “The race is canceled. I see a big hole headed this way. The wind is going to die.”

I’ll repeat that in case you missed it; “The wind is going to die.”

Update, 22-Sep-2006 Ok. Looks like I was wrong. First day forcast is 15 to 25 with a small craft warning thrown in for good measure. Maybe Mother Nature is pissed at me because of my prediction. I’m going out on a J/24 and earn some bruises.